Tweets began early after the CBO and JCT published their joint findings about the long term effects of the AHCA as proposed by the House (the Senate has yet to conjure up a vision). They do say that there will be savings (mostly due to changes in subsidies) of $32 billion net. The tax credits will offset some of the “losses” expected in coverage but overall they are dealing with some huge numbers – $1.11 trillion in reduced direct spending (tax savings and a change in Medicaid) vs. a revenue reduction (tax cuts) of $992 billion. What if their calculations are off just a few percentage points?
The nongroup market is expected to remain stable, even in those states that request waivers from market regulations…until 2020, after which they expect some instability in that market. There are still a lot of assumptions, including the idea that younger people will buy insurance
more often (without a mandate?) and that many states would make moderate changes to market regulations. The biggest potential problem, and again subject to a lot of math with which many already disagree, is that 23 million more Americans would be uninsured under the AHCA.