In April, the Pres­i­dent told the nation­al that Exchange enroll­ment was at 8 mil­lion, exceed­ing expec­ta­tions and at low­er costs than antic­i­pat­ed.  Those sta­tis­tics were selective.

As of April, 20% of those enrolled in the Exchange had still not paid their premium.

A Kaiser Foun­da­tion study shows that only 57% of the num­ber are real­ly insured and they con­sid­ered those who once had cov­er­age to be pre­vi­ous­ly insured even though there were not at the time of the Exchange enroll­ment.  The prob­lem here is that the poll was only of 742 indi­vid­u­als and even then there was antic­i­pat­ed devi­a­tion of +/- 4 points.

Using the Kaiser sta­tis­tics com­bined with the pay­ment notes, this would drop the actu­al new enroll­ment to about 3.9 mil­lion.  By this time, the CBO esti­mat­ed that the enroll­ment should be at 19 mil­lion and CMS esti­mat­ed 26 mil­lion. So…